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Fatemeh Masaebi1 
, Zohre Farahmandkia2 , Mehdi Azizmohammad Looha3 , Naghmeh Asadimanesh4 , Hossein Mohebbi5 , Mohammad Reza Mehrasbi *2
, Zohre Farahmandkia2 , Mehdi Azizmohammad Looha3 , Naghmeh Asadimanesh4 , Hossein Mohebbi5 , Mohammad Reza Mehrasbi *2
1- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Health and Metabolic Diseases Research Institute, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
2- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health٫ Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
3- Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
4- School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
5- Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
2- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health٫ Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
3- Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
4- School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
5- Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
Abstract: (751 Views)
Background: Self-harm and interpersonal violence contribute significantly to global mortality and disability. This study analyzes trends, projects future burdens, and identifies geographic patterns using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.
Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) for self-harm and interpersonal violence across 204 countries. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint regression. Projections for the year 2040 were generated using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models. Further, multilevel mixed-effects models examined the role of the Human Development Index (HDI), while spatial clustering was evaluated with Local Moran’s I.
Results: Joinpoint regression analysis showed global declines in self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2021, with average annual percent changes of-1.08% for ASIR, -1.53% for ASDR, and -1.35% for ASMR. Reductions were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while increases were observed in North Africa and the Middle East. Projections for 2040 indicate continued declines, although potential regional plateaus may emerge. Multilevel modeling showed no significant differences between developed and less developed regions.
Conclusion: Despite the observed global declines, disparities by region and gender necessitate the need for targeted interventions and improved mental health services to further reduce the burden by 2040.
Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR), and mortality rates (ASMR) for self-harm and interpersonal violence across 204 countries. Temporal trends were assessed with Joinpoint regression. Projections for the year 2040 were generated using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models. Further, multilevel mixed-effects models examined the role of the Human Development Index (HDI), while spatial clustering was evaluated with Local Moran’s I.
Results: Joinpoint regression analysis showed global declines in self-harm and interpersonal violence from 1990 to 2021, with average annual percent changes of-1.08% for ASIR, -1.53% for ASDR, and -1.35% for ASMR. Reductions were observed in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, while increases were observed in North Africa and the Middle East. Projections for 2040 indicate continued declines, although potential regional plateaus may emerge. Multilevel modeling showed no significant differences between developed and less developed regions.
Conclusion: Despite the observed global declines, disparities by region and gender necessitate the need for targeted interventions and improved mental health services to further reduce the burden by 2040.
Type of Study: Original Article |
Subject:
Public Health
Received: 2025/09/13 | Accepted: 2025/11/15
Received: 2025/09/13 | Accepted: 2025/11/15
Supplementary Files [PDF 843 KB] (6 Download)
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